ADA — 2026 Outlook

The annual chart for Cardano tells a very clear story.

After the explosive move to the all-time high at 3.1010 in 2021, ADA repeatedly failed to build sustainable upside momentum. Even in 2024, when price briefly tested the 2022 opening level at 1.3080, no structural shift followed.

In 2025, ADA printed a new low below the 2024 bottom, and the year closed with a large red candle — a classic sign of market weakness rather than accumulation.

Key downside reference levels:

• 2024 low → 0.2756
• 2025 low → 0.2737
• 2023 opening → 0.2458
• Annual gap zone → 0.2200 – 0.1069

On the monthly chart, an expanding triangle has formed. In my view, the base of this structure aligns with the 2023 opening level, tested multiple times throughout that year. While alternative triangle interpretations exist, I prefer not to build scenarios on guesses.

Price is currently moving inside the 2024 accumulation zone, which previously led to a strong upside impulse. However, the broader structure suggests that the bullish phase of this triangle has already completed:
• Three upward impulses
• Followed by a corrective decline in 2025

Most likely paths forward:

🔻 Bearish continuation
A breakdown below the triangle base → full fill of the long-term gap
Target: 0.22 → 0.1069

🔺 Counter-trend rally
A temporary upside move to fill the monthly gap between:
• September 2025 low → 0.7542
• November 2025 high → 0.6189

For now, the annual structure clearly favors risk to the downside over sustainable upside expansion.