Crypto AnalyzenThe beginning of the year is always the right moment to step back and look at the annual chart. Lower timeframes help to fine-tune entries, but the yearly view defines the strategic direction.
This year, the discussion around XMR is particularly important because the asset is already showing signs of forming a new all-time high in early January. When such moves appear so quickly, I approach them with healthy skepticism and prefer to first analyze the broader structure.
A record-wide annual range in 2025
In 2025, XMR formed the widest annual range in its history, trading between:
- 183.42 – 499.11
The year closed near 75% of the 2021 candle’s upper shadow, where the previous all-time high at 521.00 was located. From a structural perspective, this positioning makes the continuation of the upward trend reasonable.
However, despite this bullish context, a healthy correction would still be preferable before any sustainable advance. The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2025 annual range lies at:
- 341.27
This level currently sits just below the midpoint of the gap zone formed between the 2026 low and the 2023 high. A revisit of this area would represent a textbook corrective move within a broader bullish structure.
Projection suggests proximity to a new ATH
If we project the previous January–August 2025 pullback range, we obtain an upside extension target around:
- 610.08
This implies that the market is already very close to printing a new all-time high. From a liquidity perspective, this is not surprising. The formation of an ATH is typically accompanied by:
- closing of large long positions
- aggressive opening of large short positions
This dynamic often drives price even higher temporarily, before any deeper reversal emerges. It is therefore difficult to determine the precise endpoint of the current upward move solely from higher timeframes; lower-timeframe structure will be needed to identify exhaustion.
What can we expect next?
Based on the current structure, several scenarios remain open:
✔ a continued push higher toward, or slightly beyond, a new ATH
✔ shallow pullbacks used to trap late buyers before continuation
✔ technically healthy deeper correction toward 341.27
✔ increased volatility as liquidity is taken above prior highs
❗ at or near ATH formation, the risk of sharp rejection increases significantly
For now, the annual chart defines bias, while tactical decisions should be aligned with lower-timeframe developments as price interacts with major liquidity zones.